# Hurricane and rainy-season risk in Belize, month by month

> Belize's rainy season, cold fronts and hurricane months from the National Meteorological Service, plus storm passes near Placencia 1991–2020 (our count).

URL: https://catamaranindex.com/weather-risk/belize/
Last updated: 2026-10-29
Author: Catamaran Index editorial team

Belize's rainy season runs June to November and its tropical storms and hurricanes peak in September and October, according to the National Meteorological Service of Belize; in 1991–2020 a tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 nm of Placencia in 4 of 30 Octobers (our count from NOAA's HURDAT2). The dry season is November to May, with cold fronts most likely in December to February (about once every 10 days, NMS); April is the driest month.

*Checked 29 Oct 2026. Official dates are quoted; counts are our calculation from NOAA and NASA data ([how we count](#method)); facts are labelled official, secondary or not verified ([labels](#labels)).*

## Hurricane season and peak

NOAA's Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, with its peak on 10 September and most activity between mid-August and mid-October ([NOAA National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/), checked 29 Oct 2026). In an average season (1991–2020) the whole Atlantic basin has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA calls a tropical storm a system with sustained winds of 34–63 kt and a hurricane one with 64 kt or more ([NOAA National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml), checked 29 Oct 2026).

The National Meteorological Service of Belize adds its own seasons ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/)):

- "The climate of Belize is characterized by two seasons: a rainy and a dry season." "In Belize, most of the year's rainfall occurs during the period June to November, that is, the rainy season." "The dry season is from November to May with April as the driest month." (National Meteorological Service of Belize) ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))
- "Tropical storms and hurricanes peak during the months of September and October even though they vary in number from year to year." "Most of the tropical storms and hurricanes frequent the area during the month of September." (National Meteorological Service of Belize) ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))
- "The rainy season exhibits a break or mark decrease in the month of August. This break is known as the 'Mauga' season." The service adds that the pattern is not evident in the Toledo district (National Meteorological Service of Belize). ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))

When to go, with prices and the best months: [best time to charter in Belize](https://catamaranindex.com/best-time/belize/). This page prints no prices and no best-month verdict.

## Storm passes near Placencia, 1991–2020

In 1991–2020, 11 tropical storms or hurricanes passed within 100 nm of Placencia, 5 of them at hurricane strength somewhere inside the radius (our count from NOAA's HURDAT2, [NOAA National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat), checked 29 Oct 2026). The month with the most storm-years was October (4 of 30 years).

| Month | Hurricane season (NOAA) | Years with a storm within 100 nm (of 30) | Of which hurricane strength | Share of years (our calculation) |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| [January](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/january/) | – | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| [February](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/february/) | – | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| [March](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/march/) | – | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| [April](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/april/) | – | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| [May](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/may/) | – | 1 | 0 | 3% |
| [June](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/june/) | Season | 1 | 0 | 3% |
| [July](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/july/) | Season | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| [August](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/august/) | Peak | 2 | 1 | 7% |
| [September](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/september/) | Peak | 3 | 1 | 10% |
| [October](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/october/) | Peak | 4 | 3 | 13% |
| [November](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/november/) | Season | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| [December](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/december/) | – | 0 | 0 | 0% |

Each storm counts once, in the month it first came within 100 nm (our method). A pass within 100 nm does not mean hurricane winds at Placencia. The radius is our choice.

**Storms counted** (name, year and month, closest distance and highest wind inside the radius, from NOAA's best track):

- NANA (2020, September): closest 15.7 nm, up to 65 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
- EARL (2016, August): closest 53.3 nm, up to 75 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
- HARVEY (2011, August): closest 29.4 nm, up to 55 kt in the radius
- RICHARD (2010, October): closest 41.4 nm, up to 85 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
- MATTHEW (2010, September): closest 2.1 nm, up to 40 kt in the radius
- ALEX (2010, June): closest 59.4 nm, up to 55 kt in the radius
- ARTHUR (2008, May): closest 76.6 nm, up to 40 kt in the radius
- IRIS (2001, October): closest 11.8 nm, up to 125 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
- KEITH (2000, October): closest 72.9 nm, up to 114 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
- KYLE (1996, October): closest 35.1 nm, up to 45 kt in the radius
- GERT (1993, September): closest 27.8 nm, up to 35 kt in the radius

## Cold fronts and the dry season

The National Meteorological Service of Belize says the dry season is November to May, with April the driest month, and that "a cold front moves across Belize about once every 10 days". Cold fronts affect the country from October to April, and December, January and February are the most likely months  ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/)). The service's table of cold fronts is for the four years 1994–1998. Its storm table does not say which years it covers, so we show it beside our HURDAT2 count and do not merge them.

| Month | Cold fronts (NMS, 1994–1998) | Storms (NMS table, years not stated) | Storm-years within 100 nm (our count, of 30) |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| [January](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/january/) | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| [February](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/february/) | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| [March](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/march/) | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| [April](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/april/) | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| [May](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/may/) | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| [June](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/june/) | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| [July](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/july/) | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| [August](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/august/) | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| [September](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/september/) | 0 | 17 | 3 |
| [October](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/october/) | 1 | 9 | 4 |
| [November](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/november/) | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| [December](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/december/) | 8 | 0 | 0 |

## Month by month

| Month | Season | Storm-years (of 30) | Mean wind (kn) | Force 6+ days | Rain (mm) |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| [January](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/january/) | – | 0 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 180 |
| [February](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/february/) | – | 0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 86 |
| [March](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/march/) | – | 0 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 92 |
| [April](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/april/) | – | 0 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 48 |
| [May](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/may/) | – | 1 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 137 |
| [June](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/june/) | Hurricane season · rainy | 1 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 268 |
| [July](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/july/) | Hurricane season · rainy | 0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 215 |
| [August](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/august/) | Peak · rainy | 2 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 228 |
| [September](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/september/) | Peak · rainy | 3 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 247 |
| [October](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/october/) | Peak · rainy | 4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 303 |
| [November](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/november/) | Hurricane season · rainy | 0 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 352 |
| [December](https://catamaranindex.com/where-to-sail/december/) | – | 0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 189 |

The last three columns are from NASA POWER, 2016–2025 (our calculation). Force 6+ = days whose highest hourly mean wind reached 22 kn in the grid cell; not gusts.  The season column marks NOAA hurricane months and the National Meteorological Service's rainy season (June to November) as our mapping.

## What the official sources say

- The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The peak of the season is September 10, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October (NOAA National Hurricane Center). ([NOAA National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/))
- Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. These are counts for the whole Atlantic basin, not for one island group (NOAA National Hurricane Center). ([NOAA National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/))
- NOAA defines a tropical storm as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface wind (1-minute average) of 34 kt to 63 kt, and a hurricane as one with 64 kt or more (NOAA National Hurricane Center glossary). ([NOAA National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml))
- "The climate of Belize is characterized by two seasons: a rainy and a dry season." "In Belize, most of the year's rainfall occurs during the period June to November, that is, the rainy season." "The dry season is from November to May with April as the driest month." (National Meteorological Service of Belize) ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))
- "Tropical storms and hurricanes peak during the months of September and October even though they vary in number from year to year." "Most of the tropical storms and hurricanes frequent the area during the month of September." (National Meteorological Service of Belize) ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))
- "The rainy season exhibits a break or mark decrease in the month of August. This break is known as the 'Mauga' season." The service adds that the pattern is not evident in the Toledo district (National Meteorological Service of Belize). ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))
- "The southern region has one maximum which occurs in the month of July and is by far the wettest month." Our reading: Placencia, in the Stann Creek district, is in the southern part of the country (National Meteorological Service of Belize). ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))
- The service's storm table (its "Figure 2") lists tropical storms and hurricanes by month: June 5, July 4, August 3, September 17, October 9, November 3, none in other months. The page does not say which years these counts cover, so we show them beside, never merged with, our HURDAT2 count (National Meteorological Service of Belize). ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))
- "A cold front moves across Belize about once every 10 days." "Although cold fronts affect the country from October through to April the most likely months for frontal passages are December, January and February." Its table of cold fronts in the four-year compilation 1994–1998: January 12, February 8, March 6, April 2, October 1, November 3, December 8 (National Meteorological Service of Belize). ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))
- "Mean annual rainfall across Belize ranges from 60 inches (1524mm) in the north to 160 inches (4064mm) in the south." (National Meteorological Service of Belize) ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/))

## If the weather turns

- Emergency (ambulance, fire, police): 911 or 90, according to UK government travel advice. ([UK FCDO (GOV.UK)](https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/belize/getting-help))
- **[Not verified]** Sea-rescue number: we found no official page we could read, so we give no number.
- [7-day sailing itinerary in Belize](https://catamaranindex.com/itineraries/belize/)
- Forecast links (links only, no figures from them): [official NHC forecasts](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).

## Cancellation, insurance and weather guarantees

Booking in a risk season? Read your charter contract's weather and hurricane clauses: what happens if a named storm or a port closure stops you sailing, and whether you get a refund, a credit or new dates. Some booking platforms and charter companies sell cancellation options or a "weather guarantee", and some travel insurance covers trip cancellation or cutting a trip short because of weather; check what triggers the cover. We have no insurance partner and do not recommend a product. See our [affiliate disclosure](https://catamaranindex.com/affiliate-disclosure/).

## See boats in Belize

**[See boats for rent in Belize on SamBoat](https://catamaranindex.com/go/samboat?dest=belize&pos=weatherrisk)**

Ask the operator about its weather and hurricane policy before you book; listings and prices on SamBoat are SamBoat's own. We may earn a commission if you book through our links, at no extra cost to you ([disclosure](https://catamaranindex.com/affiliate-disclosure/)).

## How we count

Storm passes: from NOAA's HURDAT2 best-track file (hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt) we take every tropical storm or hurricane (HURDAT2 status TS or HU) whose track starts in 1991–2020, NHC's 30-year climate period. We interpolate the track in a straight line every 60 minutes between fixes (not across gaps over 12 hours) and count a storm once, in the month it first came within 100 nm of our reference point. The 100 nm radius, the interpolation and the month rule are our choices. "Storm-years" are the years out of 30 with at least one pass in that month. Our calculation.

HURDAT2 source: [NOAA National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat), checked 29 Oct 2026. File hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt (updated 23 September 2026), sha256 75202780ce56…, pulled 29 Oct 2026.

Strong-wind days: from NASA POWER's daily WS10M_MAX (the highest hourly mean 10 m wind of the day in one grid cell), converted to knots (1 m/s = 3600/1852 kn), we count the days per month at or above 17 kn (Beaufort force 5, fresh breeze) and 22 kn (force 6, strong breeze), the lower limits on the Met Office scale, as a mean per month over 2016–2025. Direction shares use the day's mean wind direction (WD10M) in 45° bins. Our calculation.

Rain: NASA POWER's monthly corrected precipitation (PRECTOTCORR, mm/day) times the days in each month, averaged over 2016–2025, whole millimetres. Our calculation, not a rain-gauge normal.

Calendar: a month is marked if any part of it falls in the source's window (our mapping). "Mid-July", "the cold part of the year" and similar are the source's words.

Constants: radius 100 nm, storms 1991–2020, interpolation every 60 minutes, HURDAT2 codes TS and HU; strong-wind thresholds 17 kn (force 5) and 22 kn (force 6), years 2016–2025, 45° direction bins, NASA POWER API v2.10.1.

Weather data obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project, funded through the NASA Earth Science Division (pulled 29 Oct 2026) ([NASA POWER](https://power.larc.nasa.gov/docs/services/api/temporal/daily/), checked 29 Oct 2026). We changed the data: we counted days above thresholds, binned wind directions and summed daily rain into months (our calculation). Mean wind: NASA POWER monthly means, as on our other pages.

1. Storm passes are historical frequencies for 1991–2020 within 100 nm of one reference point (our choice of radius); they are not a forecast, and a pass within 100 nm does not mean storm-force winds at the anchorage.
2. Strong-wind days use NASA POWER's highest hourly mean wind of the day in a ½° × ⅝° grid cell (about 50 km across); real gusts and local winds (funnelling between islands, the bora at the foot of the mountains) are stronger than the cell shows.
3. Some grid cells include land (elevation from NASA POWER: 7 m at Placencia), so their winds are lower than at sea.
4. Wind direction is the cell's daily mean direction; north-easterly days are our proxy for the bora and northerly days for the meltemi, not observed events.
5. Rainfall is NASA POWER's corrected precipitation for the cell, not a rain-gauge normal from the national weather service.
6. Official dates ("mid-July", "the cold part of the year") are quoted; our month mapping in the calendar is ours.

Data: [JSON](https://catamaranindex.com/api/weather-risk/belize.json).

## What we could not verify

- Belize hurricane counts for a stated period from the National Meteorological Service (its table does not say which years it covers).

## How to read the labels

- **[Peer-reviewed study, not a government source]**: a published scientific paper, used where we could open no official page; labelled secondary in our data.
- **[Secondary source]**: From a newspaper, NGO, guide or tour operator; not official.
- **[Not verified]**: We could not confirm it. We leave it open rather than guess.
- No label: Read in an official text: government, park authority, ministry or official tourism board.

Counts, shares, means and rainfall totals are our calculation, and say so; radii, thresholds and month mappings are our choices; "our reading" marks an interpretation. None of this is a forecast, a probability or a safety rating.

## Sources

- [NOAA National Hurricane Center: Tropical cyclone climatology](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/) (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
- [NOAA National Hurricane Center: Glossary of NHC terms (tropical storm, hurricane, hurricane season)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml) (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
- [NOAA National Hurricane Center: Atlantic hurricane database HURDAT2, 1851–2025](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat) (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
- [National Meteorological Service of Belize: Climate summary](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/) (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
- [NASA POWER: Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources: Daily API (WS10M_MAX, WD10M) and Monthly API (PRECTOTCORR)](https://power.larc.nasa.gov/docs/services/api/temporal/daily/) (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
- [NASA POWER: Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources: Monthly API (T2M, WS10M)](https://power.larc.nasa.gov/docs/services/api/temporal/monthly/) (official), checked 28 Oct 2026.
- [Met Office: Beaufort wind force scale](https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/guides/coast-and-sea/beaufort-scale) (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
- [UK FCDO (GOV.UK): Belize travel advice: getting help](https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/belize/getting-help) (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.

Method: [methodology](https://catamaranindex.com/methodology/#weatherrisk). Data: [JSON](https://catamaranindex.com/api/weather-risk/belize.json).

## More

- [Weather risk by month, all destinations](https://catamaranindex.com/weather-risk/)
- [Best time to charter in Belize, with prices](https://catamaranindex.com/best-time/belize/)
- [Belize: weather by month](https://catamaranindex.com/belize/#weather)
- [7-day sailing itinerary in Belize](https://catamaranindex.com/itineraries/belize/)
- [Best destinations for families](https://catamaranindex.com/family-yacht-charter/)
- [Fishing rules in Belize](https://catamaranindex.com/fishing/belize/)
- [Snorkelling and diving in Belize](https://catamaranindex.com/snorkel-dive/belize/)
- [Catamaran Index home](https://catamaranindex.com/)

## FAQ

### When is the rainy season in Belize?

Belize's rainy season runs June to November and its tropical storms and hurricanes peak in September and October, according to the National Meteorological Service of Belize; in 1991–2020 a tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 nm of Placencia in 4 of 30 Octobers (our count from NOAA's HURDAT2). The dry season is November to May, with cold fronts most likely in December to February (about once every 10 days, NMS); April is the driest month.

### When is hurricane season in Belize?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, with its peak on 10 September and most activity between mid-August and mid-October, according to NOAA's National Hurricane Center ([NOAA National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/), checked 29 Oct 2026). The National Meteorological Service of Belize says tropical storms and hurricanes peak in September and October ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/), checked 29 Oct 2026). In 1991–2020, a storm passed within 100 nm of Placencia in 4 of 30 Octobers, the most of any month (our count from NOAA HURDAT2). Details: [storm passes](#storms).

### What is the Mauga?

The National Meteorological Service of Belize says the rainy season "exhibits a break or mark decrease in the month of August" and calls this break the "Mauga" season, adding that the pattern is not evident in the Toledo district ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/), checked 29 Oct 2026).

### Do cold fronts affect sailing in Belize?

Cold fronts affect Belize from October to April; the service says one crosses about once every 10 days and that December, January and February are the most likely months ([National Meteorological Service of Belize](https://nms.gov.bz/climate-services/climate-summary/), checked 29 Oct 2026). We have no official source on what fronts mean for sailing conditions, so ask your base. Our strong-wind count at Placencia shows at most 0.2 force 6 days in a month, a grid-cell figure that under-reads real winds (our calculation).

### What happens to my charter if a hurricane comes?

Booking in a risk season? Read your charter contract's weather and hurricane clauses: what happens if a named storm or a port closure stops you sailing, and whether you get a refund, a credit or new dates. Some booking platforms and charter companies sell cancellation options or a "weather guarantee", and some travel insurance covers trip cancellation or cutting a trip short because of weather; check what triggers the cover. We have no insurance partner and do not recommend a product. Your charter contract decides what happens.

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