Hurricane risk in the Bahamas (Abacos), month by month

How often tropical storms and hurricanes passed near Marsh Harbour, Abaco each month, 1991–2020 (NOAA data, our count), the official season and what to check.

Updated By the Catamaran Index editorial teamMethodology

Hurricane season

1 Jun–30 Nov

NOAA National Hurricane Center

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked

Riskiest month (our count)

August

6 of 30 years, 1991–2020

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked

Peak day

10 September

most activity mid-Aug to mid-Oct

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked

Checked

29 Oct 2026

official dates, our counts

The Bahamas' hurricane risk runs with the Atlantic hurricane season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October (NOAA); in 1991–2020 a tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 nm of Marsh Harbour, Abaco in 6 of 30 Augusts, and none in December to May (our count from NOAA's HURDAT2). If you book June to November, read your charter contract's hurricane clause and consider travel insurance that covers named storms; this is a historical frequency, not a forecast.

Checked 29 Oct 2026. Official dates are quoted; counts are our calculation from NOAA and NASA data (how we count); facts are labelled official, secondary or not verified (labels).

Hurricane season and peak

NOAA's Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, with its peak on 10 September and most activity between mid-August and mid-October (NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked 29 Oct 2026). In an average season (1991–2020) the whole Atlantic basin has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA calls a tropical storm a system with sustained winds of 34–63 kt and a hurricane one with 64 kt or more (NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked 29 Oct 2026).

When to go, with prices and the best months: best time to charter in the Bahamas. This page prints no prices and no best-month verdict.

Storm passes near Marsh Harbour, Abaco, 1991–2020

In 1991–2020, 22 tropical storms or hurricanes passed within 100 nm of Marsh Harbour, Abaco, 13 of them at hurricane strength somewhere inside the radius (our count from NOAA's HURDAT2, NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked 29 Oct 2026). The month with the most storm-years was August (6 of 30 years).

MonthHurricane season (NOAA)Years with a storm within 100 nm (of 30)Of which hurricane strengthShare of years (our calculation)
January–000%
February–000%
March–000%
April–000%
May–000%
JuneSeason000%
JulySeason3110%
AugustPeak6420%
SeptemberPeak4313%
OctoberPeak227%
NovemberSeason3210%
December–000%

Each storm counts once, in the month it first came within 100 nm (our method). A pass within 100 nm does not mean hurricane winds at Marsh Harbour, Abaco. The radius is our choice.

Storms counted (name, year and month, closest distance and highest wind inside the radius, from NOAA's best track):

  • DORIAN (2019, September): closest 3.1 nm, up to 160 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • HUMBERTO (2019, September): closest 21.0 nm, up to 51 kt in the radius
  • MATTHEW (2016, October): closest 83.4 nm, up to 120 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • KATE (2015, November): closest 47.0 nm, up to 55 kt in the radius
  • SANDY (2012, October): closest 4.9 nm, up to 73 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • EMILY (2011, August): closest 68.1 nm, up to 35 kt in the radius
  • IRENE (2011, August): closest 7.7 nm, up to 90 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • BRET (2011, July): closest 55.8 nm, up to 60 kt in the radius
  • HANNA (2008, September): closest 22.6 nm, up to 55 kt in the radius
  • NOEL (2007, November): closest 31.5 nm, up to 70 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • KATRINA (2005, August): closest 47.1 nm, up to 53 kt in the radius
  • FRANKLIN (2005, July): closest 14.6 nm, up to 45 kt in the radius
  • FRANCES (2004, September): closest 39.2 nm, up to 95 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • JEANNE (2004, September): closest 6.8 nm, up to 105 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • MICHELLE (2001, November): closest 77.3 nm, up to 77 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • FLOYD (1999, September): closest 9.7 nm, up to 115 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • HARVEY (1999, September): closest 85.1 nm, up to 40 kt in the radius
  • DENNIS (1999, August): closest 14.6 nm, up to 90 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • BERTHA (1996, July): closest 57.2 nm, up to 80 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • ERIN (1995, August): closest 31.2 nm, up to 75 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • ANDREW (1992, August): closest 68.9 nm, up to 150 kt in the radius, hurricane strength
  • BOB (1991, August): closest 56.5 nm, up to 50 kt in the radius

Month by month

MonthSeasonStorm-years (of 30)Mean wind (kn)Force 6+ daysRain (mm)
January–012.13.954
February–011.82.629
March–011.62.643
April–011.70.653
May–010.30.8100
JuneHurricane season09.30.2109
JulyHurricane season39.10.075
AugustPeak69.40.577
SeptemberPeak49.11.8127
OctoberPeak211.71.7102
NovemberHurricane season311.22.556
December–011.82.348

The last three columns are from NASA POWER, 2016–2025 (our calculation). Force 6+ = days whose highest hourly mean wind reached 22 kn in the grid cell; not gusts.

What the official sources say

  • The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The peak of the season is September 10, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October (NOAA National Hurricane Center). (NOAA National Hurricane Center)
  • Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. These are counts for the whole Atlantic basin, not for one island group (NOAA National Hurricane Center). (NOAA National Hurricane Center)
  • NOAA defines a tropical storm as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface wind (1-minute average) of 34 kt to 63 kt, and a hurricane as one with 64 kt or more (NOAA National Hurricane Center glossary). (NOAA National Hurricane Center)

If the weather turns

Cancellation, insurance and weather guarantees

Booking in a risk season? Read your charter contract's weather and hurricane clauses: what happens if a named storm or a port closure stops you sailing, and whether you get a refund, a credit or new dates. Some booking platforms and charter companies sell cancellation options or a "weather guarantee", and some travel insurance covers trip cancellation or cutting a trip short because of weather; check what triggers the cover. We have no insurance partner and do not recommend a product. See our affiliate disclosure.

See boats in the Bahamas

See catamarans for rent in the Bahamas on SamBoat

Ask the operator about its weather and hurricane policy before you book; listings and prices on SamBoat are SamBoat's own. We may earn a commission if you book through our links, at no extra cost to you (disclosure).

How we count

Storm passes: from NOAA's HURDAT2 best-track file (hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt) we take every tropical storm or hurricane (HURDAT2 status TS or HU) whose track starts in 1991–2020, NHC's 30-year climate period. We interpolate the track in a straight line every 60 minutes between fixes (not across gaps over 12 hours) and count a storm once, in the month it first came within 100 nm of our reference point. The 100 nm radius, the interpolation and the month rule are our choices. "Storm-years" are the years out of 30 with at least one pass in that month. Our calculation.

HURDAT2 source: NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked 29 Oct 2026. File hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt (updated 23 September 2026), sha256 75202780ce56…, pulled 29 Oct 2026.

Strong-wind days: from NASA POWER's daily WS10M_MAX (the highest hourly mean 10 m wind of the day in one grid cell), converted to knots (1 m/s = 3600/1852 kn), we count the days per month at or above 17 kn (Beaufort force 5, fresh breeze) and 22 kn (force 6, strong breeze), the lower limits on the Met Office scale, as a mean per month over 2016–2025. Direction shares use the day's mean wind direction (WD10M) in 45° bins. Our calculation.

Rain: NASA POWER's monthly corrected precipitation (PRECTOTCORR, mm/day) times the days in each month, averaged over 2016–2025, whole millimetres. Our calculation, not a rain-gauge normal.

Calendar: a month is marked if any part of it falls in the source's window (our mapping). "Mid-July", "the cold part of the year" and similar are the source's words.

Constants: radius 100 nm, storms 1991–2020, interpolation every 60 minutes, HURDAT2 codes TS and HU; strong-wind thresholds 17 kn (force 5) and 22 kn (force 6), years 2016–2025, 45° direction bins, NASA POWER API v2.10.1.

Weather data obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project, funded through the NASA Earth Science Division (pulled 29 Oct 2026) (NASA POWER, checked 29 Oct 2026). We changed the data: we counted days above thresholds, binned wind directions and summed daily rain into months (our calculation). Mean wind: NASA POWER monthly means, as on our other pages.

  1. Storm passes are historical frequencies for 1991–2020 within 100 nm of one reference point (our choice of radius); they are not a forecast, and a pass within 100 nm does not mean storm-force winds at the anchorage.
  2. Strong-wind days use NASA POWER's highest hourly mean wind of the day in a ½° × ⅝° grid cell (about 50 km across); real gusts and local winds (funnelling between islands, the bora at the foot of the mountains) are stronger than the cell shows.
  3. Some grid cells include land (elevation from NASA POWER: 0 m at Marsh Harbour, Abaco), so their winds are lower than at sea.
  4. Wind direction is the cell's daily mean direction; north-easterly days are our proxy for the bora and northerly days for the meltemi, not observed events.
  5. Rainfall is NASA POWER's corrected precipitation for the cell, not a rain-gauge normal from the national weather service.
  6. Official dates ("mid-July", "the cold part of the year") are quoted; our month mapping in the calendar is ours.

Data: JSON.

What we could not verify

  • The Bahamas Department of Meteorology climate document (the PDF could not be read).

How to read the labels

  • [Peer-reviewed study, not a government source]: a published scientific paper, used where we could open no official page; labelled secondary in our data.
  • [Secondary source]: From a newspaper, NGO, guide or tour operator; not official.
  • [Not verified]: We could not confirm it. We leave it open rather than guess.
  • No label: Read in an official text: government, park authority, ministry or official tourism board.

Counts, shares, means and rainfall totals are our calculation, and say so; radii, thresholds and month mappings are our choices; "our reading" marks an interpretation. None of this is a forecast, a probability or a safety rating.

Sources

Method: methodology. Data: JSON.

More

Frequently asked questions

When is hurricane season in the Bahamas?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, with its peak on 10 September and most activity between mid-August and mid-October, according to NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked 29 Oct 2026). We found no separate Bahamas season in an official source we could open; the answer rests on NOAA and our own HURDAT2 count.

What is the riskiest month for a charter in the Bahamas?

By our count (NOAA HURDAT2, 1991–2020) the month with the most storm-years within 100 nm of Marsh Harbour, Abaco was August, with a storm in 6 of 30 years; other months with a storm: July 3 of 30 years (1 at hurricane strength); September 4 of 30 years (3 at hurricane strength); October 2 of 30 years (2 at hurricane strength); November 3 of 30 years (2 at hurricane strength). This is a historical frequency, not a forecast.

Is it safe to sail in the Bahamas in June or November?

We do not give a yes or no. The facts: both months are inside NOAA's 1 June to 30 November season, outside the mid-August to mid-October peak (NOAA National Hurricane Center, checked 29 Oct 2026). By our count a storm passed within 100 nm of Marsh Harbour, Abaco in 0 of 30 Junes and 3 of 30 Novembers (1991–2020). Read your contract's hurricane clause and check the official NHC forecasts.

What happens to my charter if a hurricane comes?

Booking in a risk season? Read your charter contract's weather and hurricane clauses: what happens if a named storm or a port closure stops you sailing, and whether you get a refund, a credit or new dates. Some booking platforms and charter companies sell cancellation options or a "weather guarantee", and some travel insurance covers trip cancellation or cutting a trip short because of weather; check what triggers the cover. We have no insurance partner and do not recommend a product. Your charter contract decides what happens.

When is the cheapest time, and is it in hurricane season?

Prices and the cheapest months are on best time to charter in the Bahamas, which marks the hurricane months next to them. This page prints no prices.