Wet season and cyclone risk in French Polynesia, by month

• Météo-France splits the year into "de novembre à avril, une saison dite « chaude » ou été austral qui coïncide avec une humidité plus importante" and "de mai à octobre, une saison dite « fraîche » ou hiver austral qui coïncide avec une humidité moindre". In English (our translation): November to April is a "warm" season, the austral summer, with higher humidity; May to October is a "cool" season, the austral winter, with lower humidity. The service adds that this split "ne s'applique pas rigoureusement à toutes les îles", that is, it does not apply strictly to every island (Météo-France Polynésie). (Météo-France Polynésie)
• For the Society Islands, "la saison des pluies débute en novembre et s'achève en avril. Les mois de décembre et janvier sont les plus arrosés." In English (our translation): the rainy season begins in November and ends in April; December and January are the wettest months. Rain is heavy in the warm season and often becomes light in the cool season (Météo-France Polynésie). (Météo-France Polynésie)

Our calendar marks November to April as wet season, the Météo-France warm season; Tahiti Tourisme gives the same months (Tahiti Tourisme, checked 27 Oct 2026). When to go, with prices and the best months: best time to charter in French Polynesia. This page prints no prices and no best-month verdict.

Outlook for November 2026 to April 2027 (published 26 October 2026; we remove or replace it after April 2027).

• Outlook for November 2026 to April 2027, published 26 October 2026, in English (our translation): El Niño has reached the "very strong" stage on the RONI index ("a désormais atteint le stade « très fort »"); all 24 available models forecast it will stay very intense to the end of the 2026–2027 warm season; the 2026 El Niño "could become the strongest ever observed"; since 1970 only five episodes have been classed as very strong on the RONI index. The climate centres agree on a high risk of at least one named tropical system ("au moins un phénomène tropical nommé") in the Society Islands and the northern and central Tuamotu, and a lower risk in the Marquesas and the Gambier. The service expects more rain on islands north of the 15th parallel south and less on islands south of it. Raiatea is at about 16.7° S, which is south of that line. The page gives no number of cyclones and no months for the cyclone risk (Météo-France Polynésie). (Météo-France Polynésie)

Raiatea, our reference point, is at about 16.7° S, which is south of the 15th parallel, so the page's "more rain north of 15° S" does not apply to our route: it expects less rain south of that line. We claim no more rain for Raiatea.

• Météo-France splits the year into "de novembre à avril, une saison dite « chaude » ou été austral qui coïncide avec une humidité plus importante" and "de mai à octobre, une saison dite « fraîche » ou hiver austral qui coïncide avec une humidité moindre". In English (our translation): November to April is a "warm" season, the austral summer, with higher humidity; May to October is a "cool" season, the austral winter, with lower humidity. The service adds that this split "ne s'applique pas rigoureusement à toutes les îles", that is, it does not apply strictly to every island (Météo-France Polynésie). (Météo-France Polynésie)
• For the Society Islands, "la saison des pluies débute en novembre et s'achève en avril. Les mois de décembre et janvier sont les plus arrosés." In English (our translation): the rainy season begins in November and ends in April; December and January are the wettest months. Rain is heavy in the warm season and often becomes light in the cool season (Météo-France Polynésie). (Météo-France Polynésie)
• Outlook for November 2026 to April 2027, published 26 October 2026, in English (our translation): El Niño has reached the "very strong" stage on the RONI index ("a désormais atteint le stade « très fort »"); all 24 available models forecast it will stay very intense to the end of the 2026–2027 warm season; the 2026 El Niño "could become the strongest ever observed"; since 1970 only five episodes have been classed as very strong on the RONI index. The climate centres agree on a high risk of at least one named tropical system ("au moins un phénomène tropical nommé") in the Society Islands and the northern and central Tuamotu, and a lower risk in the Marquesas and the Gambier. The service expects more rain on islands north of the 15th parallel south and less on islands south of it. Raiatea is at about 16.7° S, which is south of that line. The page gives no number of cyclones and no months for the cyclone risk (Météo-France Polynésie). (Météo-France Polynésie)

• Emergency: ambulance 15 (or 4048 5906 from a landline), fire 18, police 17, according to UK government travel advice. (UK FCDO (GOV.UK))
• [Not verified] Sea-rescue number: we found no official page we could read, so we give no number.
• 7-day sailing itinerary in French Polynesia
• Forecast links (links only, no figures from them): Météo-France Polynésie.

Booking in a risk season? Read your charter contract's weather and hurricane clauses: what happens if a named storm or a port closure stops you sailing, and whether you get a refund, a credit or new dates. Some booking platforms and charter companies sell cancellation options or a "weather guarantee", and some travel insurance covers trip cancellation or cutting a trip short because of weather; check what triggers the cover. We have no insurance partner and do not recommend a product. See our affiliate disclosure.

See catamarans for rent in French Polynesia on SamBoat

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Strong-wind days: from NASA POWER's daily WS10M_MAX (the highest hourly mean 10 m wind of the day in one grid cell), converted to knots (1 m/s = 3600/1852 kn), we count the days per month at or above 17 kn (Beaufort force 5, fresh breeze) and 22 kn (force 6, strong breeze), the lower limits on the Met Office scale, as a mean per month over 2016–2025. Direction shares use the day's mean wind direction (WD10M) in 45° bins. Our calculation.

Rain: NASA POWER's monthly corrected precipitation (PRECTOTCORR, mm/day) times the days in each month, averaged over 2016–2025, whole millimetres. Our calculation, not a rain-gauge normal.

Calendar: a month is marked if any part of it falls in the source's window (our mapping). "Mid-July", "the cold part of the year" and similar are the source's words.

Constants: strong-wind thresholds 17 kn (force 5) and 22 kn (force 6), years 2016–2025, 45° direction bins, NASA POWER API v2.10.1.

Weather data obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project, funded through the NASA Earth Science Division (pulled 29 Oct 2026) (NASA POWER, checked 29 Oct 2026). We changed the data: we counted days above thresholds, binned wind directions and summed daily rain into months (our calculation). Mean wind: NASA POWER monthly means, as on our other pages.

1. Storm passes are historical frequencies for 1991–2020 within 100 nm of one reference point (our choice of radius); they are not a forecast, and a pass within 100 nm does not mean storm-force winds at the anchorage.
2. Strong-wind days use NASA POWER's highest hourly mean wind of the day in a ½° × ⅝° grid cell (about 50 km across); real gusts and local winds (funnelling between islands, the bora at the foot of the mountains) are stronger than the cell shows.
3. Some grid cells include land (elevation from NASA POWER: 4 m at Raiatea), so their winds are lower than at sea.
4. Wind direction is the cell's daily mean direction; north-easterly days are our proxy for the bora and northerly days for the meltemi, not observed events.
5. Rainfall is NASA POWER's corrected precipitation for the cell, not a rain-gauge normal from the national weather service.
6. Official dates ("mid-July", "the cold part of the year") are quoted; our month mapping in the calendar is ours.

Data: JSON.

• Official start and end dates of the cyclone season.
• Météo-France station normals for Raiatea.

• [Peer-reviewed study, not a government source]: a published scientific paper, used where we could open no official page; labelled secondary in our data.
• [Secondary source]: From a newspaper, NGO, guide or tour operator; not official.
• [Not verified]: We could not confirm it. We leave it open rather than guess.
• No label: Read in an official text: government, park authority, ministry or official tourism board.

Counts, shares, means and rainfall totals are our calculation, and say so; radii, thresholds and month mappings are our choices; "our reading" marks an interpretation. None of this is a forecast, a probability or a safety rating.

• Météo-France Polynésie: Climat de la Polynésie (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
• Météo-France Polynésie: Perspectives pour la saison chaude 2026-2027 (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
• Tahiti Tourisme: Tahiti weather (secondary, not official), checked 27 Oct 2026.
• NASA POWER: Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources: Daily API (WS10M_MAX, WD10M) and Monthly API (PRECTOTCORR) (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
• NASA POWER: Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources: Monthly API (T2M, WS10M) (official), checked 28 Oct 2026.
• Met Office: Beaufort wind force scale (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.
• UK FCDO (GOV.UK): French Polynesia travel advice: getting help (official), checked 29 Oct 2026.

Method: methodology. Data: JSON.

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